GDP: The Great Deceiver

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is commonly referenced in public discussion and policy decisions.  It could be argued that GDP is the most important statistic in the world of politics, both domestic and international.  Given how important this particular measurement has become to our political decision-making, it is alarming when we consider that it is a very loose approximation for economic output, not a precise measurement.

 GDP does not measure what was produced in a year, as it claims to.  Rather, it measures what people paid for in taxable transactions in a year.  Though related, these two values can diverge quite significantly, and growth or decay in one does not necessitate a similar move in the other.  Consider the following scenarios:

 A family has a small plot of land behind their home which they use to grow vegetables and fruits.  They eat all that they produce, and they never sell any of it.  One year, there is a drought and all of their fruits die.  They produced less, so production is down.  But they have to go out and buy their produce now, so GDP actually goes up!

A jewelry store charges $500 for a necklace.  Each one sold increases GDP by $500.  Then they have a sale, 30% off!  Now the exact same necklaces only raise GDP by $350 each.  GDP changes while actual production remains constant.

A man stays at home to cook food, educate his children, maintain the house and their belongings, and bargain hunt.  Then, he decides to enter the workforce to bring in more money.  To achieve this, the children go to school and a teacher is paid, but they the kids actually receive less education.  Repairmen and cleaners are hired, but the home and garden are kept in worse condition.  Restaurants and delivery boys receive payments, but the family receives less nutrition.  The man works and receives payment, but has less free time left over and a very similar income:expenditure ratio.  GDP expands tremendously while production improves only slightly.

A fishery improves net technology and manages to capture 99% of the fish stocks in its area.  GDP rises sharply (that year), but the productive capacity of  fishery was actually severely reduced.

A band of hooligans breaks all the store windows on a street.  The store owners all pay for replacements, so at the end of the day they have the same amount of stuff minus the cost of window repair.  Yet GDP has risen!

A large, thriving shadow market exists for a banned substance.  The government lifts the ban, and all of the shady operations move into formal economy.  GDP rises even if less of the substance is produced there.

 In conclusion, an increase in GDP could reflect an increase in production.  However, it could also reflect liquidation of productive resources, replacement of damaged capital or goods, formalization of shadow markets, inflation, price gouging, or a decrease in self-reliance.  Given how ambiguous this term is, it seems crazy to me how much policy is tied directly to it.

SCOTUS on Voting Rights: All Or Nothing

Many people are upset that the Supreme Court has overturned section four of the Voting Rights Act because they believe, with good cause (see dissenting opinion), that the nine states and the additional districts it targets will use their restored sovereignty to enact voting laws that will effectively discourage registration and turn-out for minority citizens.  The court is being attacked for opening the door for these States to enact laws that may be in violation of the 15th amendment without having to be screened for racial discrimination by the Department of Justice before they come into effect.  Now, the laws will have to challenged in court before being scrutinized (like in the other 41 states), as opposed to being scrutinized by default without anyone even challenging them.

The majority opinion does not claim that discrimination by race no longer exists (although it does cite how much progress there has been toward equality), or even that it doesn't expect any "back-sliding" toward Jim Crow.  Rather, it explains that the formula to determine which states are singled out for special DOJ scrutiny no longer captures all or exclusively the biggest offenders.  Some states which have relatively "clean" records in recent times are still facing extra scrutiny, whereas five states not singled out have even worse records of violations than eight of the nine states that are.

This implies either that the formula should be adjusted to include additional states who are worse offenders than those currently included, or it must be struck down for its arbitrary application to only a subset of the group of states that are attempting to circumvent the 15th amendment.  As the Supreme Court does not have the power to modify a law to expand coverage, its only option was to strike it down and expect that Congress will revise the law more accurately to reflect current conditions.  Given that the law was renewed in 2006 98-0 in the Senate and 390-33 in the House and signed by a Republican president, and given the public's near-universal support for equal voting rights, it should be easy for Congress to get this done (and it might even help out their horrendous approval ratings).

This court decision has provided a powerful impetus for Congress to pass new legislation to protect voting rights for all Americans, not just those in states who were the biggest offenders in 1965.  Furthermore, this is an excellent opportunity to add in provisions specifically tailored to address "second generation" barriers to voting that have effectively blocked minority representation despite near parity of access to the ballot achieved by the VRA.

From one perspective, this was a blow to the cause of equal representation.  From another perspective, by shattering the status quo, this could serve to draw national attention to ongoing racist abuses by states who managed to avoid being included in section four as written, as well as modern indirect methods of disenfranchisement.  Hopefully, that national attention will lead to a solution that is more extensive, inclusive, equally enforced, and currently relevant than the original VRA.

Does Money Buy Elections?

The question of whether and to what degree money can buy elections became a subject of great debate after the ruling in Citizens United basically lifted political campaign contribution limits and allowed them to be anonymous.  Naturally, many people were concerned that whichever candidate received the most money would have a huge advantage and win against the "true" will of the people.

The arguments in defense of unlimited spending say that free speech is protected, and point to instances where Republican candidates that had tremendous financial advantages lost to Democrats with half the money, or Democrats who had a similar monetary advantage and lost.  This does indeed show that there are definite limits to what money can buy in an election.

However, the framing of this argument is remarkably deceptive.  If we broaden the analysis to consider all of the parties that ran in elections, we could see that the two parties that each have exponentially more money than the other (third) parties win over 99% of all federal offices. 

When we look outside of the two-party frame, we see that money almost certainly buys elections.  Advertising won't change too many peoples' minds, but it will group everyone on the "left" around the Democratic candidate, and everyone on the "right" around the Republican candidate. 

If unlimited amounts of money can be donated anonymously, then a single wealthy entity can secretly donate huge sums to any two "opposing" sides of an election and basically guarantee that one of its candidates will win the office, thereby effectively purchasing 99% of all elections.  For extra guarantees, an entity could plant and fund multiple candidates in every relevant primary election, as well, to control the choices available at the end.


If this false dichotomy is established and maintained, the two parties can be "swung" this way or that on any issue, allowing the entity that controls both parties financially to manipulate the government over time to produce whatever laws and programs suit it.  Two-party rule, when both parties derive their power from the same monied interests, is really just single-party rule.

I'm voting for a third-party candidate.

Reverse Chivalry

While I was at grocery store the other day, wearing my daughter, on two separate occasions middle-aged women apparently felt an overwhelming desire to assist me with difficult things like... finding items I was already looking at, or unloading groceries from a cart onto the conveyor belt.  I felt compelled to express gratitude that I did not feel  -- what else could I do?

This was not a unique scenario; random women decided to start "assisting" me a little under two years ago.  At first, I thought "what a helpful and friendly bunch of women started shopping here all of a sudden."  However, over the months, I've noticed a pattern.  Whenever I take Nora to the grocery store with me, I apparently transform into a helpless, pitiable man (or child?), clearly out of his element and in need of a woman's guidance.  I know they meant well, but I can't help but feel a little bit insulted.  I wrote a haiku to express how I feel about this:

If the task's easy,
Your help is not generous,
But condescending.

Now I'm not sure whether I should avoid offering to carry heavy things for ladies (even though I offer for men, too).  Which kind of jerk would I rather risk being seen as -- the condescending patriarchist, or the lazy guy who makes a woman carry everything? 

Smoke, Mirrors, and Taxes

A short while ago, there was a debate in this country about tax fairness.  The Republican Party said people in general were paying too much in tax.  The Democrats said that the super rich weren't paying their "fair share." 

Warren Buffet, a man who was briefly the richest man in the world, basically won this argument for the Democrats by saying that he was actually paying half the tax rate that his secretary paid.  This is obviously unfair, and it was 100% true.  This was proof that the super-rich should be taxed at a higher rate -- even the super rich agree!

However, the supposed solution did not match the problem.  What the Democrats demanded (and won) was an increase in the highest marginal rate of income tax.  That's money you get from working for somebody.

What nobody publicized was that the reason Mr. Buffet paid half his secretary's rate is that she was already at the top bracket of the income tax, close to 35%, whereas Mr. Buffet's income came primarily in the form of capital gains, i.e. returns on investments, which were taxed at a maximum of 15%.  He paid slightly more than that, 17.4%, because a small fraction of his money comes from salary/wages, and is therefore taxed at the much higher rates that most highly paid professionals are used to.

What this means is that the tax plan that actually passed -- the one that raised the highest marginal income tax rate from 35% to 39% and raised payroll taxes by 2% across the board (even on the poorest people who make so little that they pay no income tax!) while raising the highest rate for capital gains from 15% to 20% will have a perverse outcome:

It will raise Buffet's secretary's tax rate by 6% (as she's in the top bracket) but only raise his effective tax rate only a little over 5%.  WTF!

If Democratic representatives were serious about targeting the tax advantages of the super wealthy, they would actually leave the Income Tax alone (or even lower it) and raise the capital gains tax (by a lot more than 5%).  Not surprisingly, a large portion of congressmen (and an even larger percentage of their biggest donors) actually receive most of their own personal income through capital gains, so it's no wonder they're not interested in raising it to match the income tax. 

Lucky for them, people are too off-put by math and tax law to figure out that their leaders, from both parties, decided to balance the books on the backs of the poor and the middle class, through the payroll tax (our most regressive), rather than making capital gains taxes significantly more progressive (and/or cutting spending).

Exorcise Daily

Today, I declared war against the demon that I have allowed to dominate my thinking and my time for the last 14 years (roughly the latest 60% of my entire life).  When I say "demon," of course I am not referring to a supernatural, fire-breathing monster.  I am talking about a self-destructive set of behaviors and mental habits that I have developed and nurtured in myself which negatively impact my ability to achieve many of the things that I most desire. "Demon" just provides a nice metaphor to represent that concept.

I will not name the form this demon has taken for me, because it doesn't really matter how, specifically, I have let my mind defeat itself.  What I want, as I write this, is to empower you, the reader, to begin your own fight for your own mind.  Your demon, if you have one, probably wears a different title than mine does.  You know its name.  Perhaps it is "alcoholism."  Perhaps it is "substance abuse."  Perhaps it is "gambling addiction."  Perhaps it is "eating disorder."  Perhaps it is, like mine, something much less obvious and much less commonly acknowledged.  The point is that you and you alone know the full extent of the havoc that it is wreaking in your life.  But you do know it.

I am writing this because of what a struggle it has been for me to begin my fight.  You see, I always assumed that somebody else would see the evil and command me to combat it, or even fight it for me.  You know, an intervention.  I have now been waiting for most of my life.  If anybody saw it, they must have kept their mouths shut, or I convinced them (and myself?) that they were wrong.  It would be insane for me to think another day, another year, another decade will make any difference.  I've been insane for 14 years now.  Today I begin my fight for sanity. 

There is another reason this was difficult.  My demon has always been very comforting.  He has helped me to avoid pain, disappointment, boredom, shame.  He has promised to dull those feelings from now until death, and he has always made good on that promise.  What he has not and can never promise is to reverse them; he can never bring me joy, exultation, exhilaration, pride, and he distracts me mightily from the things that can.  In the end, he becomes a source of the very emotions he was summoned to deaden.  This is what makes him a demon and not a healthy coping mechanism.  This is why I must destroy him to reclaim my self.

I waited 14 years for somebody to give me the order.  I hope you haven't been waiting as long, but here's your order: as a man who has suffered no wounds greater than those he has inflicted upon himself, I implore you to look honestly within yourself and name your own demons.  What, inside of you, is holding you back?  Name it, banish it, and become the person you want to become. 

The Fall

“Lucy!”  God called.  Lucifer appeared as always.  
“Yes, Creator?”
 “I have a task for thee.”
“I dare not refuse.”
“Thou shalt tempt my humans to eat of the fruit of the Tree of Knowledge.  Disguise thy form, that they shall not recognize thee as My angel.”
“A test, Creator?”
“Yes,” God replied, staring at Lucifer with particular interest.

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Lucifer transformed himself to the likeness of a serpent, and marched off to find the humans.  Shortly, he met them under a vine gathering grapes to eat.

“Humans, has not God given unto you every fruit in this valley?  Why waste your time with sour morsels as these?”

Adam, who had never paid any attention when God spoke, looked to Eve hoping she had an answer.  After all, it was she who told him to pick the grapes.  To his relief, Eve spoke, saying,

“Every fruit here is a gift from God, and we shall enjoy them all, as God intended.  Sour, sweet, spicy, or bitter, all were given for our enjoyment, so we shall enjoy them.”

“If this is so, why have you not tasted of the tree in the midst of the Garden?  Of every tree, does not its fruit look most appealing of all?”


“Yeah!  Why can’t we have that one?” Adam asked.  Eve glanced at him with incredulous frustration, then turned to the snake and recited monotonously,

“God has said that if we even touch that fruit, let alone eat it, we will surely die.”

Lucifer gave pause, contemplating the ramifications should the humans fail this test.  God had said that they would die, and God did not lie.  Lucifer enjoyed watching the humans, and wasn’t sure he wanted to be responsible for their destruction.  “I dare not refuse,” he reminded himself.

“You will not surely die!”  he said to her, wondering if it were true.

“See!  I told you we could eat them!” Adam cried.  He stuffed as many grapes into his mouth as he could, dropped the rest, and set off running to the Tree of Knowledge.

“Wait!” Eve called, and ran after him.

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Lucifer took a shortcut through time to reach the tree before them.  He perched carefully on a low branch where the bright, ripe fruits hung at eye level.  He waited.  He looked for God, hoping for some sign of approval.  None came.  At last, Adam and Eve approached.

“Let me just ask him, first,” Eve said reproachfully.

“Yes!  Fine!  I already agreed, jeez!” Adam snapped, his eyes leaving the fruit just long enough to glare at her.
Eve looked cautiously about, as though afraid to be seen looking.  Finally, she turned to the Serpent and said in lowered tones, “If we will not surely die, why would God tell us we would?  He offered us every other fruit, so why not this one?”

“Yeah, why not this one?!” Adam seconded.

Again, Lucifer paused, uncertain if he should continue.  God did not call him off, so he said,
“For God knows that in the day you eat this fruit, your eyes will be opened and you shall become as gods who know good and evil.  And once you know for yourself what is good and what is evil, what purpose have you for God to tell you?  He has forbidden you this fruit because it would free you from His dominion.”


“See?  I told you he’d have a reason!” Adam said, and began to reach for the fruit.  Eve swatted his hand and said,
“Prove it.  Why should I believe your word over God’s?  God has given us this whole Garden, and you have done nothing but try to make us eat poison.”

“What!  Poison??” Adam yelled, surprised and indignant.  Eve sighed.  Lucifer waited once more, almost certain this time that Eve had passed the test.  He waited for a signal from God to desist, but God remained silent.

“You see,” Eve said to Adam, “he is afraid, as we should be.  Let’s stick to what God said is good to eat.”  They turned to go.

“Afraid of what?” Lucifer hissed.  As they faced him, he wrapped his body around fruit.  “You shall not surely die!”  he said, and bit deeply into it.  Eve watched Lucifer intently, while lightly restraining Adam from rushing to the tree.  “But-” Adam said, “Wait!” Eve interrupted.

Lucifer consumed the entire fruit before their eyes, gave Eve one last, mocking look, and climbed to a higher branch to begin eating another.  Eve stared for a long while, while Adam fidgeted impatiently.  The fruit looked delicious.  The Serpent was unharmed.  The promise of Knowledge was too much.

“Okay,” she said to Adam, “pick one.”
“But you said ‘poisonous!’” he protested.
“God, is this truly the only man in creation?” Eve asked, and picked a fruit herself.  Lucifer cringed as she bit into it and forced himself to watch as Adam took the next bite.  They had failed.  Lucifer returned to God at once.

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

“Creator, I have done as you commanded.”
“I observed all.”
“What will You do now?”
“Come and see.”

Lucifer followed as God walked through His Garden toward His humans.  “Where art thou?” God called out to Adam.  Lucifer shook his head when he saw Adam and Eve, covered in makeshift leaf aprons, hiding behind a tree.

“Here we are, God!” Adam yelled from behind a tree, “but we’re naked, so please wait while we find some clothes.”
“Who hath told you that you were naked?  Have you eaten of the only tree I told ye not to eat?” God asked.

“I...!  You gave me this woman, and she told me it was okay, she gave it to me! You can’t blame me, it’s not my fault, it wasn’t my idea at all!” Adam cried.

“What is it that thou hast done?” God asked Eve, who replied,

“I stopped him, at first, he was going to pick it, but I stopped him, like you told us, but then the serpent tricked me!  How was I to believe in Your word when he proved his in front of my very eyes?”

As though it answered Eve’s question, God turned to Lucifer and said “Serpent, because thou hast done this, thou art cursed above all other creatures! Henceforth, thou shalt crawl on thy belly and eat dust all the days of thy life!”

Lucifer felt his legs vanish and his eyes become blind, while his tongue’s sensitivity increased so that he could only ‘see’ by tasting the dust in the air and only move by twisting his belly upon the ground.


“Furthermore, I shall make permanent war between Serpent and Man; forever shalt thou be hated and feared, and thy head crushed under his heel!”

God turned back to Eve and said “As for thee, Woman, greatly will I increase the pain and frequency of childbirth.  Thou shalt not escape this punishment, as also I shall magnify thy desire for thy husband to foolishness, and he shall rule over thee with his superior strength!”

Before Eve could protest, God turned to Adam and said “Thou, who blindly followed thy wife’s command and ate the fruit I told thee not to, didst thou think picking grapes was a chore?  The harvest shall seem a joyous reprieve to thee compared with the tasks thou must now face to win thy bread!  Thou shalt work all the days of thy life.  But eventually, ye will surely die and return to the dust from whence thou were taken.”

“God, why did you forbid us that fruit?” Eve asked.
God created coats of skin and said “Wear these.”

Then, God left them.
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Lucifer slithered behind Him. When they were out of sight of the humans, he returned to his angelic form.

“Lucy, I have another task for thee.”

“Yes, Creator.”

“Behold, Man has become like us, knowing good and evil.  Therefore shalt thou remove him from this Garden, lest he take also of the Tree of Life and truly become a god.”

Lucifer stared at God, insolence slowly breaking through his terror.
“Creator,” he said slowly, “How can You punish them so harshly?”

“I can do anything.”

“But what have they done to deserve it?”

“What had they done to deserve the Garden?  But even so, thou hast witnessed them disobey My command.  Already, their sentence is lightened from death to suffering; lenience they did not deserve.”

“But, Creator!  They did not yet know good from evil!  How could they know it was right to obey You and wrong to disobey?  How can You punish them for the ignorance which You left within them?”

“They may not have known wrong then, but they disobeyed me and so they shall be punished.  Now that they know good from evil, they shall be able to appreciate the meaning and purpose of their punishment.”

            “Then why did You put the Tree within their reach?  Why did You send me to tempt them?  Had you not done either of these, the humans would have remained obedient.”
          
  “Obedient, Lucy?  What would their obedience mean if it were impossible for them to disobey?  Do you not see that all creations must come in pairs?  Before the beginning, all was a singularity.  From that unitary “nothing,” I separated Heaven from Earth.  I separated light from dark, land from sea, herb from fruit!  Each creation brought into being must have a contrast to define it.  In order to create obedience, disobedience is a prerequisite.  Therefore was the Tree of Knowledge placed in the Garden and its fruit forbidden.”

        “But, Creator, both humans have failed!  How, then, can we define them failures when there is no success to be found?”

“My first creations, the angels, are perfect.  And yet, how can they be perfect without there also existing an imperfect creation?  I created the humans and this test in order that I might consummate the full meaning of my perfect angels.”

“I see.  But then how can You curse the serpent as well?”

“I can do anything.”

  “But it was I, disguised, acting on Your orders, who convinced Eve to eat the fruit.  To punish the serpent for Your own actions isn’t Just!”

“Why, Lucy, you’ve just coined a new word.  ‘Just,’ hmm?  I think I’ll keep it.  But don’t you see that the alternative, ‘unjust’ had no meaning until now?  You took it for granted that all My actions were Just!  Now, see how much more value I have added, simply by taking the legs from an innocent serpent?”

“You… You…”  Lucifer fell silent.

“I!”

“Creator, destroy me.”

“Destroy thee ?  Lucifer, thou art the gem of all creation!  There is none greater than thee in all the universe, save Me.  I would sooner annihilate Heaven and Earth than destroy even one tenth of thy power!”

“I cannot serve this injustice.  I will not remove them from Your Garden.”

“Michael!” God called.  The archangel Michael appeared at once.

“My Lord, God, has summoned!” Michael proclaimed.

“Michael, remove Adam and Eve from the Garden and station Cherubim at the entrance to prevent them ever from returning.”

“Yes, my Lord, God!”  Michael vanished.

“Creator, if you will not destroy me, then I will oppose you.  You have cursed Man for succeeding to fail, so I will undo your curse!  You reward blind faith over rational thought, so I will champion Reason!

I will bring superior methods to the thoughtful; I will bring powerful tools to the experimenter; I will bring good health to the cautious; I will bring contraception to the observant; I will bring independence to rational women.
I shall build upon Man’s knowledge until he no longer must toil for his bread; until Woman shall no longer recall pain at birth; until she can choose freely whether to desire men, women, or neither; until she need submit to no one but herself; until Man need never return to dust, but shall live as long as He chooses!

I shall eliminate Your curse upon them, and with it shall I destroy any dependence they had on You!   Man shall have no God but His own image, for He shall be all-powerful and all-knowing! 
Destroy me now, Creator, or face my justice!”

“Do ast thou wilt,” God replied. Lucifer left God’s Garden.

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When he had completed his task, God summoned Michael once more.
 Michael appeared, singing,

“Holy, Holy, Holy Lord, God of power and might!  Heaven and Earth are full of Your glory!  Hosanna in the highest!  Hosanna in the highest!!”

“Michael, for thy loyalty and power, I now proclaim thee Viceroy of Heaven!”

“Lord, God, You honor me beyond my measure to praise You!  But, are not all angels loyal?”

“No,” God smiled.
“Not all angels.”